The final Sunday before the election. There should be plenty of polls out tonight (certainly we should see ComRes, YouGov, Deltapoll and Opinium – and perhaps others). I will update this post as they appear, and then round up at the end.
The first to appear is SavantaComRes. Slightly confusingly they have two polls out tonight, conducted using slightly different methods, over different timescale and showing slightly different results.
The first was conducted for RemainUnited, Gina Miller’s anti-Brexit campaign, and was conducted between Monday and Thursday. It has topline figures of CON 42%, LAB 36%, LDEM 11%, BREX 4%. The second was conducted for the Sunday Telegraph, with fieldwork between Wednesday and Thursday. Topline figures there are CON 41%, LAB 33%, LDEM 12%, BREX 3%. Tables for the SavantaComRes/Sunday Telegraph poll are already available here.
The previous ComRes poll was conducted for the Daily Telegraph with fieldwork on Monday and Tuesday, so the RemainUnited poll actually straddles the fieldwork period of both polls. It was also asked a little differently. The most recent two ComRes polls for the Telegraph have prompted people with the specific candidates standing in their constituency (i.e. someone would be asked if they will vote for Bob Smith – Labour, Fred Jones – Conservative, etc, and not be given the option of voting for any party that is not standing in their area). In contrast, it appears that the ComRes poll for RemainUnited was conducted using their previous method, where candidates were just prompted with a list of parties – Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat and so on. For some reason, ComRes seem to find a higher level of support for “other others” when they prompt using party names.
Putting that aside, the SavantaComRes poll for the Telegraph earlier in the week had a 10 point Conservative lead. Comparing the two SavantaComRes/Telegraph polls that used the same methodology shows the Tories down 1, Labour up 1. A small narrowing in the lead, but nothing that couldn’t just be noise. I’m expecting a fair number of polls tonight, so we should be in a position to see if there is a consistent trend across the polling companies, rather than getting too excited about any movement in individual polls.
UPDATE1 – Secondly we have Opinium for the Observer. Topline voting intention figures there are CON 46%(nc), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 2%(nc). Fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday and Friday and the changes are from a week ago. There is obviously no movement at all in support for the main parties here. The fifteen point Tory lead looks daunting, but it’s worth bearing in mind that Opinium have tended to show the largest Conservative leads during the campaign.
UPDATE2: The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 13%(+1), BREX 3%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday, and changes are from their midweek poll for the Times and Sky. Again, no significant change here. YouGov’s last four polls have had the Tory lead at 11, 9, 9 and 10 points, so pretty steady.
Finally (at least, as far as I’m aware) there is Deltapoll in the Mail on Sunday. Changes are from last week. Their topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(nc). A slight narrowing there, leaving the Conservative lead at 11, but again, nothing that couldn’t just be noise.
Looking at the four companies who’ve released GB opinion polls for the Sunday papers, we’ve got ComRes and Deltapoll showing things narrowing by a little, YouGov showing the lead growing by a point, Opinium showing no movement. The clear trend towards Labour we were seeing earlier in the campaign appears to have petered out. The average across the four is a Conservative lead of 11 points, though of course, these are tilted towards those pollsters who show bigger Conservative leads. Taking an average of the most recent poll from all ten pollsters producing regular figures gives an average of 10 points.