Midweek polling round up

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5 Dec 2019

Below are the polls that have come out since the weekend.

SavantaComRes/Telegraph (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
YouGov/Times/Sky (2nd-3rd Dec) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 12%(-1), BREX 4%(+2) (tabs)
ICM/Reuters (29th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 13%(nc), BREX 3%(-1) (tabs)
Kantar (28th Nov-2nd Dec) – CON 44%(+1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), BREX 2%(-1) (tabs)
Survation/GMB (26th-30th Nov) – CON 42%(+1), LAB 33%(+3), LDEM 11%(-4), BREX 3%(-2) (tabs)

Last week there appeared to be a consistent narrowing of the Conservative lead across all the polls. That now appears to have come to a halt or, at least, there is no obvious sign of it continuing. Four of the polls published this week have shown no sign of the lead narrowing (and the exception – the Survation poll for Good Morning Britain – was actually conducted last week, at a time when other polls were showing the lead falling). Note that the ComRes poll reflects a change in methodology to prompt for candidate names, something that somewhat unusually lead to all the parties falling and “other others” going up by four.

As things stand the polls show a consistent Conservative lead, varying between 6 points from BMG and 15 points from Opinium, with the average around about 10 points. It is hard to be certain what sort of lead the Conservatives need for a majority (it depends on swings in different areas and how they do in the different battlegrounds), but a reasonable assumption is somewhere around 6 or 7 points, meaning that the BMG and ICM polls that show the smallest leads are in an area where an overall majority would be uncertain. All the other polls point towards a Conservative majority.

We should have two more sets of polls before election day – the typical rush of Sunday polls (Opinium, Deltapoll, YouGov, BMG and ComRes all usually release polls on Sundays), and then the pollsters final call polls on Tuesday and Wednesday next week.


UKPollingReport

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