The first handful of polling since Tuesday night’s debate is out. But it doesn’t tell a terribly consistent story. Pretty much whichever Democrat you’re rooting for, you can find some polls to be happy about and others that you’d rather ignore. Here’s a quick list of those polls: SurveyUSA has a new national poll that […]
With a mix of relatively strong and relatively weak polls for each of the major candidates, the top line of our 2020 Democratic primary forecast has been roughly unchanged over the past several days. In a race without a clear favorite, former Vice President Joe Biden remains the front-runner, with a 39 percent chance of […]
We’ve officially entered silly season in the Democratic primary, which means we’re at the point where you can get pretty far by just stating the obvious. So here are a few rather obvious truths about the Democratic primary: Only one candidate can be nominated. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, two of the more likely people […]
Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28488613/”></iframe> In a late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses. The candidates spent time debating foreign policy and whether a woman can beat President Trump in the 2020 presidential election. You can […]
Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): This is the first debate of 2020 and the last debate before the voting starts in Iowa in less than three weeks. There are six candidates (the smallest debate stage yet), and we’ve finally published our primary […]
By Galen Druke and Nate Silver Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28459692/”></iframe> Our 2020 Democratic primary forecast is live! In a new installment of “Model Talk,” FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast’s check-in with our forecast, Nate Silver discusses the state of the race according to the forecast and what went into creating […]
Welcome to your first FiveThirtyEight Election Update of the 2020 primary cycle! This is a column in which we’ll talk about the primary race through the lens of our forecast model, which we released earlier this week. Sometimes it will be rather brief, and we’ll quickly run through the latest data — while other times, […]
Upcoming primaries and caucuses Who will win in Iowa? Iowa will vote on Feb. 3rd. Who will win in New Hampshire? New Hampshire will vote on Feb. 11th. Who will win in Nevada? Nevada will vote on Feb. 22nd. Who will win in South Carolina? South Carolina will vote on Feb. 29th. Who will win […]
Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28436056/”></iframe> Late Thursday, the Pentagon announced that the United States killed Iran’s Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, “at the direction of the President” in an airstrike in Iraq. Iran has since vowed retaliation. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses how the […]
Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/28395654/”></iframe> As the year comes to close, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team looks back on the most significant political moments of 2019 and previews the most pressing questions of 2020. They also discuss the Democrats’ debate over health care and the events that led the […]