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Politics Podcast: What Happened When The Front-Runners Were All On Stage

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27604498/”></iframe> The three polling leaders — Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders — shared a debate stage for the first time Thursday night. From the spin room floor in Houston, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast broke down who came out on top and who struggled. […]

If You’re Polling In The Low Single Digits, You’re Probably Toast

Yesterday, I wrote about the middle and upper echelons of the Democratic field: those candidates who are polling in the mid-single-digits or higher. You can certainly posit a rough order of which of these candidates are more likely to win the nomination. I’d much rather wager a few shekels on Joe Biden than Pete Buttigieg, […]

Buy, Sell Or Hold? A Special Democratic Debate Edition

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Welcome, everyone, to a special debate-focused preview edition of our weekly politics chat!! In recent weeks, we’ve talked a lot about the different strategies the candidates should use on the debate stage, who the lineup is good […]

Politics Podcast: How To Win This Week’s Debate

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27581212/”></iframe> This Thursday, 10 Democrats vying for the presidential nomination will share a stage for the first time. We’ve discussed what strategies for the top three candidates — Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren — might adopt, but the debate is also an opportunity […]

How To Handle An Outlier Poll

It’s pretty rare that a pollster calls his own survey an “outlier.” But that’s exactly what happened last week after a Monmouth University poll showed an approximate three-way tie between Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden. Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute — an A-plus-rated pollster according to FiveThirtyEight — issued […]

Politics Podcast: What A 10-Person Democratic Debate Means

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27530925/”></iframe> Last Thursday, ABC News finalized the lineup for the third Democratic primary debates — only 10 candidates will participate, and they will all take the stage on the same night. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew debates whether the field […]

2019 NFL Predictions

How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our traditional model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. Our quarterback-adjusted Elo […]

Is The 2020 Democratic Field Down To 10 Candidates?

Welcome to a special edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Wednesday marked the last day candidates could qualify for the Sept. 12 Democratic primary debate, and in the end there were 21 DNC-approved polls, with 10 candidates able to hit 2 percent support […]

How Much Of A Threat Is Elizabeth Warren To Joe Biden’s Front-Runner Status?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): On Monday, a new national Monmouth poll found that Joe Biden’s status as the 2020 Democratic front-runner may be in jeopardy. The former vice president is no longer the sole candidate at the top of the pack: […]

Politics Podcast: The Winnowing Begins

Embed Code <iframe frameborder=”0″ width=”100%” height=”180″ style=”margin:20px auto 25px;max-width:600px;” scrolling=”no” src=”https://fivethirtyeight.com/player/politics/27471578/”></iframe> In the past few weeks, Rep. Seth Moulton, Gov. Jay Inslee and former Gov. John Hickenlooper have dropped out of the presidential race, with Hickenlooper declaring that he will run for U.S. Senate. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses […]

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